---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPACE WEATHER AND REVOLUTION 722 Timetable of events Time Table (GMT) EVENT ---------------- ----- 10:30 November 3 CME Observed (USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity) (The outer solar atmosphere, the corona, is structured by strong magnetic fields. Where these fields are closed, often above sunspot groups, the confined solar atmosphere can suddenly and violently release bubbles of tongues of gas and magnetic fields called CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS: CME) 05:30 November 4 SOHO LASCO/EIT observed a halo CME starting around 5:30 UT, 1997. SEC (Space Environment Center) report: "Space Weather Operations is predicting geomagnetic storm conditions on 06-08 November from the recent halo CMEs. Their current prediction is for active to minor storm conditions on 06 November from the halo CME observed by SOHO on 03 November. This will be followed by major storm conditions on 07 November from the X2 halo. Barring any further events on the Sun, 08 November should see active to minor storm conditions as the disturbance passes by the Earth." 8:00 November 4 Proton flux with E > 10 Mev measured by GOES increases for three order of magnitude; similar behaviour for flux with E > 50 MeV and E > 100 MeV. After it reaches the maximun begins to slowly decay. USAF/NOAA REPORT: A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 04/0640Z, PASSED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD AT 04/0830Z, AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 72 PFU AT 04/1120Z. THEREAFTER, GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES SLOWLY DECLINED AND AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WERE AT 16 PFU. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 2.6 PFU AT 04/0930Z. POLAR CAP ABSORPTION DURING THIS EVENT WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEEN 2.6 DB WITH A MAXIMUM AT APPROXIMATELY 04/1300Z. (Solar protons are accelerated to very high velocities in the explosive release of energy associated with a solar flare. The particles cannot take a straight line path to the Earth but must travel along the interplanetary magnetic field. Depending of the flare location on the surface of the Sun the intensity and arrival time of the high speed solar particles at the Earth. If the flare occurs in the limb of the Sun (directly connected to the Earth along a curved magnetic field line) the flare particles will arrive more rapidly and in greater number than those than began their travel from the center on the solar disk, that it can take two or thee days.) 11:29 November 4 ISO Perigee Passage, revolution 720 11:25 November 5 ISO Perigee Passage, revolution 721 THE PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV HAS ENDED (START: 04/0830Z, PEAK-72PFU: 04/1120Z, END:05/1125Z). 08:35 November 6 PHT Responsivity check of PHT-S at deactivation for revolution 721. The ramps look nominal (no effects yet from the space environment). 11:21 November 6 ISO Perigee Passage, revolution 722 11:55 November 6 USAF/NOAA REPORT: REGION 8100 PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE YET OF THE NEW SOLAR CYCLE, AN X9/2B PEAKING AT 11:55 ZULU. 12:00 November 6 Proton flux with E > 10 MeV measured by GOES increases by more than two order of magnitude. Similar behaviour for flux with E > 50 MeV and E > 100 Mev. USAF/NOAA REPORT: PRODUCED PROTON EVENTS AT GREATER THAN 10 AND 100 MEV WHICH REMAIN IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV EVENT CROSSED THE EVENT THRESHOLD OF 1 PFU AT 06/1245Z AND APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK FLUX OF 51 PFU AT 06/1640Z. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV EVENT CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 06/1305Z AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (06/2100Z FLUX 340 PFU). THE PCA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE BEGAN AT ABOUT 06/1400Z AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS. CURRENT (06/2100Z) PCA ABSORPTION AT THULE GREENLAND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 5.6 DB. THIS X9 FLARE PRODUCED THE FIRST GROUND LEVEL EVENT (GLE) OF THE SOLAR CYCLE (LAST GLE IN 1992). THE GLE STARTED AT ABOUT 06/1220Z, PEAKED WITH ABOUT A 10% INCREASE ABOVE BACKGROUND AT 06/1355Z, AND APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED AT 06/2000Z. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REACH STORM LEVELS BY TOMORROW DUE TO THE MAJOR SOLAR EVENTS OBSERVED ON 4 NOVEMBER 13:18 November 6 It begins the activation of the four instruments. We are in the worst part of the storm. 14:30 November 6 Space weather conditions produce ISOPHT QPAS messages for all detectors. 01:25 November 7 Problem in guide star adquisition is likely associated to the space weather as SCC reported a larged number of hits on the star tracker. 11:17 November 7 ISO Perigee Passage, revolution 723 14:29 November 7 Responsivity checks for ISOPHT are back to their nominal values. USAF/NOAA REPORT: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED AT MOST STATIONS DURING THE 07/0000-0600Z PERIODS FOLLOWING AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVAL AND SUDDEN STORM COMMENCEMENT (SSC) AT 06/2252Z. THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO BE RELATED TO THE X2/2B FLARE OF 04 NOV. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV AND GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENTS GENERATED FROM YESTERDAY'S X9/2B FLARE REMAIN IN PROGRESS. 11:13 November 8 ISO Perigee Passage, revolution 724 USAF/NOAA REPORT: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT HAS ENDED [START: 06/1245Z, PEAK: 06/1640Z (51 PFU), END: 08/0250Z]. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT REMAINS IN PROGRESS [START: 06/1305Z, PEAK: 07/0250Z (490 PFU), CURRENT (08/2100Z) FLUX 18 PFU]. THE PCA EVENT HAS ENDED [START: 06/1400Z AND END: 08/1100Z]. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE SOLAR WIND DATA DOES NOT YET SHOW EVIDENCE OF A SHOCK PASSAGE FROM THE 06 NOV X9/2B FLARE. 11:09 November 9 ISO Perigee Passage, revolution 725 USAF/NOAA REPORT: THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT HAS ENDED [START: 06/1305Z, PEAK: 07/0250Z (490 PFU), END 09/1205Z].